Weekly Weather Watch: Sunday, August 13th, 2023
WHAT’S HAPPENING
A strong cold front for this time of the year moves across the northern states early in the period and will deliver threats of severe weather and flooding in addition to a cool down to parts of the country. Much below average highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast for the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday. The cooler temperature will spread into the Midwest and portions of the Central/Southern Plains Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs will be closer to and above summertime averages ahead of the front, with upper 70s and low 80s for New England and mid-80s to low 90s for the Mid-Atlantic. -WPC.
IN THE RAIN GAUGE
For the country, heavy precipitation will focus on the Midwest and East, although there will be some hit-and-miss periods of heavy rainfall with the Southwest’s monsoon. The monsoon remains relatively weak across the Southwest, but there will be moments of storminess today through Tuesday, then again next weekend. The following maps shows the estimated rainfall for the next two days, five days, and a total for the week; look for the highest totals in Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, and between Florida and coastal Virginia. Flash flooding remains a threat in these areas.
ON YOUR RADAR
In terms of severe weather, the storminess may be damaging as it delivers lots of that rainfall to the Central U.S. during the next few days. The following three images show the relative threats of damaging thunderstorms. Forecast predictability is too low right now to discuss the potential for severe weather later in the week.
THE SIZZLE CONTINUES
Regarding temperatures, we remain in the heat across the South and West. Expect the hot weather threats to increase across the Central U.S. next week, too. Here are a couple of images showing the most significant heat areas for this week and next. Widespread heat-related advisories and warnings are in effect from Florida north to the Carolinas and west to Texas/Oklahoma. The most excessive heat is expected to focus across a large portion of Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Daily high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid-90s in Florida and the Carolinas, the upper 90s into portions of the Southeast, the low 100s in Oklahoma and the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the mid 100s into portions of Texas. These temperatures when combined with high humidity will allow for heat indices as high as 110 to 120F for many locations. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs are forecast both days, with similarly record-level warm low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s providing little relief from the heat overnight. Some moderation of the heat is expected for northern portions of the region by the middle of this upcoming week as cooler air follows the southward moving cold front cutting across the country, starting with the noted portions of the Southern Plains Monday. -WPC
So far, the month is playing out as we discussed in my monthly outlook for members only. If you like these weekly weather briefings, please share with your networks with the links below. If you’d like to be on the monthly forecasts and updates list, please use this link to register.
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