Weekly Weather Watch: Monday, December 4th, 2023
‘Tis the SEA-son: Winter is when El Niño and La Niña conditions typically peak. This current El Niño event gained some strength in the SEA surface conditions during November, now 3rd strongest among events since 1980; however, the atmosphere is far less excited about it. The impact of El Niño will continue through this winter, and we will see more of its influence this month. The December weather outlook was published on the 1st for members.
For this week, a warm-before-the-storm. Many of us will warm up during the workweek before a system crosses the country by the weekend. Record-setting temperatures are shown here before a trough swings through in a few days to cool us off.
This next system should be watched closely for travel impacts, especially for those in the Rocky Mountain region late week or those headed East next weekend. You’ll see the weather areas in the animation below, a forecast radar product going through the weekend.
From that system, we have water - lots of water. Total precipitation is shown here, with several inches for the Northwest and healthy totals for the East, too.
Part of that total precipitation will be in the form of snow. For parts of the West, it has been a late show for snow, and basins here are well below average, so added snowfall will be nice.
Bottom-line: This week will have its most active weather for the Northwest and East, but the Rockies need to be watching a system for late week and weekend, slight changes to its path may increase snowfall impact on areas from Cheyenne, Wyoming to Amarillo, Texas. Colorado peeps, details for the state, Denver, and Colorado Springs from my partners at Weather5280.
Pacific tropical moisture will drive one of the bigger weather stories this week as it gets pulled north into a slow-moving storm over the Southwest. New Mexico and western Texas face the greatest flash-flood threat early in the week, before heavy rain expands across the Southern Plains, Central Plains and Midwest. Some areas could pick up 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher totals. The wet pattern won’t end quickly either, with the threat gradually shifting east toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys later this week and into the weekend. Meanwhile, the Nor’easter affecting New England is winding down, while late-season heat hangs on across southern Texas and eventually builds across parts of the West.