LULL-ABYE: It is never safe in the weather world to say that things appear to be in a lull, but when it comes to overall hazardous weather across the country this week… it is a bit of a lull, for lack of better terms. We have some heavy precipitation/flooding areas and hot temperatures to consider. So, we’ll begin there and chat about the outlook for hurricanes, too. Then, allow me to step on my soapbox momentarily before we get to this week’s Cultivator’s Corner with AJ Brown. Let’s get to the headlines that will make up the weather department this week.

SOGGY: I was just listening to the Soggy Bottom Boys, hence the title for this section. Rainfall this week of a “too much” variety will be across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Central Plains to start the week off for Monday. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall will be in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast and remain in the Northeast through Friday. What are my odds of getting more than an inch of rain? For this week, those odds are quite high in Colorado, Northern New Mexico, Western Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Texas. Notice there are even some high probabilities of two-inch totals in the same areas, although not as high as the odds for the Northeast to get that much rainfall.

BEATING THE HEAT: Although there remains hot weather across the South and West, the overall area of excessive heat is smaller than it has been. Consider the number of records to be set (potentially) this week… not that many in the grand scheme. That being said, lower 100s for South Texas, South New Mexico, and South Arizona is still pretty darn hot if you ask me.

TRAINING THE ATLANTIC: The hurricane season remains active at the moment with Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot churning in the Atlantic. To be watched this week in addition to those storms will be a couple of waves coming off of Africa that may turn into a new storm. At the moment, nothing appears imminent to hit the US mainland, although you will see lots of headlines about Hurricane Lee this week for how strong a storm it is.

SOAPBOX: I have seen tons of winter weather outlooks floating around on various platforms, and although many of those are founded in credibility - many leave a lot to be desired and appear as though the creator was just having fun with various colors in MS Paint. Any forecast needs to have historical perspective before a forecast can be made… so many do not I am afraid. So, before you catch those winter forecasts in your feeds, watch my latest perspective piece on what similar El Niños have done to snow and cold, historically speaking. That way, you have a more informed perspective on those winter outlooks you’ll see.

CULTIVATOR’S CORNER:

Welcome to the Cultivator’s Corner, where we delve deep into the intersection of weather and greenery. Whether you have a blossoming garden, a bountiful farm, or simply a green thumb, this is your go-to source for weather insights tailored to your agricultural pursuits. It’s here where we’ll take the weather outlook and help you use that knowledge to nurture your crops and gardens to their fullest potential. Since this is our first week, I wanted to start off with some helpful resources for climate-resilient agriculture brought to you by the Colorado State University Agricultural Water Quality Program:

• Climate Smart Ag: Cropping Systems Management

• Climate Smart Ag: Grazing Systems Management

And for the homeowners out there, here is a helpful factsheet to get started with smart irrigation for the fall and winter months to be prepared now that meteorological fall has officially begun (as of 1 Sep 2023).

• Watering in Fall and Winter

Stay tuned next week for more insight, and remember: Mother Nature may hold the keys, but 'The Cultivator's Corner' unlocks the door to a flourishing future! - AJ Brown, Agricultural Data Scientist

BOTTOMS: That’s the stuff we’ve got for you this week, let’s make it a good one! - Matt & AJ.